Oct. 13, 2009 - Lake Washington School District Home Prices

Prices will likely continue to fall in the Lake Washington School District, given the 1st Quarter 2009 pricing did not decrease as it did in most of King County. In a previous post I noted that Bellevue School District medain home price per square foot dropped 31% from peak to current "bottom".  Lake Washington School District is running the King County Average of 22% from peak to bottom, with 3rd quarter 2009 running higher than 2nd quarter 2005.

The potential is for the median price to drop below $200 a square foot and at minimum a few dollars less than $211. 

The surprising number here is 4th Quarter 2007. Amazing that many found so many bargains at that time. For most of King County, prices did not dip in that fashion while the news was still getting out about the lending woes and subprime crisis.

The volume pattern does not follow the norm either, and I suspect that Lake Washington likely lost some momentum to Northshore School District. Will know better when I compile the Northshore stats.

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Oct. 12, 2009 - Bellevue School District Home Prices

Somewhat like North Seattle, short sales and bank-owned property sales in the Bellevue School District are actually pulling the prices up vs. down. But for a different reason. The predominance of higher end homes in this district are causing the distressed properties to fall disproportionately toward the most or more expensive homes.

The median asking price of homes for sale in Bellevue School District is $899,000, but the median sold price is $563,500 for 3rd quarter 2009. Let's look at the median price per square foot of the homes sold.

Now let's see how sales volume contributed...or not...to price changes. My observation here is that Bellevue School District has dropped in price by 31% from top to "bottom"...much  more than King County as a whole, due the the fact that many homes for sale are not affordable by the buying population at this point.

The stock market woes of early 2009 likely had more to do with these volume changes than the $8,000 homebuyer credit.  So I don't expect the expiration of that credit to dramatically impact home sales and home prices in Bellevue School District. Just the normal 4th quarter cyclical change.

(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

Oct. 12, 2009 - North Seattle Home Prices

In the previous post we looked at the volume of homes sold in Seattle North of Downtown. Here we look at median price per square foot.  At the end of the 3rd quarter we are closer to 1st quarter 2006 than 2nd quarter 2006 as to price, but up about 6.4% from $233 in the 1st quarter of 2009. Even in up years, 4th quarter pricing tends to fall from 3rd quarter to 4th due to cyclical factors. With the $8,000 homebuyer credit expiring (unless it is extended) we would expect to see a significant change downward by 1st quarter of 2010.

Question is, will it fall below the $233 of the first quarter? In Seattle SOUTH of Downtown, I think that's a given. But North of Downtown, not necessarily so.

Below I speculate in the green and yellow lines where we might have been without the housing credit, much like I did in the previous post as to volume. The green line here is where prices might be without the stock market woes or the homebuyer credit., so I added a yellow line that balances the net effect of both. The yellow line suggests the market would have been flat in North Seattle at $252 to $253 per square foot in 2009 without undue influence.

Given prices are at $248, if we don't lose too much in the 1st and 4th quarters, we may see prices holding into 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2010 in the $245 to $250 range.

In the above example I support my own previous statements that home prices in the 1st quarter would have been  higher, if the market wasn't dragged so low when the homebuyer credit was announced as a "maybe" coming. You may recall that the credit at that point was potentially shifting from a $7,500 15 year interest free loan...to an outright credit of $8,000 with no repayment. Clearly a change worth waiting for and the unprecedented low volume rate of 1st Quarter 2009 proves that out in the previous post.

(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

Oct. 11, 2009 - Seattle Real Estate Stats - North Seattle Homes

I've been studying the stats over the last few days, preparing my thoughts regarding What will happen in the Seattle Area when the homebuyer credit expires? This is Part 1 of a series of where will we be when the credit expires based somewhat on where we might have been if there never was an $8,000 Homebuyer Credit.

Volume of homes sold in 3rd quarter 2009 is about the same as 1st quarter 2006 and 2nd quarter 2008. i have also done a lot of price graphs, but starting here with volume graphs.

This first graph tells you what IS as to North Seattle, that being north of Downtown. I use a Map Search feature that draws a line at the Seattle dot on the map, which is placed at Downtown Seattle. The results for North Seattle are significantly different than South as to volume and price changes. For the Eastside I will break it out by School District, which is the most relevant dividing factor for most "suburban" home values and activity.

At the end of last month I took North Seattle into "above and below" 85th, pointing out that the area from downtown to 85th was by far the highest performer. Once I finish North Seattle vs. South Seattle and Eastside by School District, I would like to visit the two segments of North Seattle again.

For now, let's look at some general observations and projections.

In the graph below, I speculate (green) where volume might have been without the $8,000 homebuyer credit. To guesstimate where the market will go when the credit expires, I'm using the 2008 relationship between quarters as a guide, though my final observations will be based both on price and volume...and not volume alone. When I called "bottom" at 1st quarter 2009 earlier this year on or about Feb 10, it was based somewhat on the then projected phenomenon of volume at 470 in the first quarter, which I state as "unprecented" for the  most part.

More on that as I post more data in subsequent posts, but you can clearly see how the 1st Quarter of 2009 volume of 470 was drastically impacted by the credit "coming" and not yet "here". It is my best guess that Volume might have been closer to 608 (as shown in the green bar), had the credit not been a factor at all.

(Required Disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)

Oct. 3, 2009 - 5 "must haves" for Moving to Seattle

1) Fleece Jacket - I bought mine at REI over 5 years ago. It's an Oakley. I like the one I have because it is neutral 2-toned with dark side panels for a slimmer silhouette, Choose wisely, as they last practically forever, even if you wear it most everyday "as needed" in Seattle.

If I were choosing one today, it likely would be this one:

2) 100% Waterproof Hooded Outer-Jacket - I have a few of these, and I find it best to have one for each season. Contrary to popular belief, people in Seattle DO NOT run around with umbrellas very often. They are more likely to pull a hood over their head OR pretend it isn't raining at all on most days. I thought having a good rain hat would be best...but having lived here for some time now, I'd have to give that a big no, and say hooded jacket (with fleece jacket noted above, under it) is the norm.

This Eddie Bauer Hangfire Hoodie will do the trick...but it will scream "I just moved to Seattle and I'm afraid I might get wet!"

I like the yellow lightweight hooded Kenneth Cole from Amazon.com that you can keep in your car or backpack. We walk a lot in Seattle, so yellow rain gear helps you stand out on a grey day for extra safety when crossing streets. In Seattle you stand in the rain until you get the "walk" light, even if NO cars are anywhere in sight. So a good lightweight hooded jacket that is 100% waterproof, is a "must have".

3) Rain Boots - I have to admit that I don't wear mine very often, and these don't go very well with my yellow rain jacket for sure :) But a distinctive rain boot, that tells friends it can only be you coming down the street, are a "must have". So take your time finding a pair that are uniquely uncommon.

4) Recycle Guide - In fact you may want top take an advanced class in reclying, if you are going to live IN Seattle vs. The Eastside. General expectations of what is and isn't trash vs. yard waste vs recycle (yes, we have 3 different cans here) might serve  you if you live in Redmond, Bellevue or Kirkland...but Seattle takes trash disposal to a whole new level. That pizza box is NOT recycle...it is "yard waste".

Seattle even provides you with a "test quiz" meant to enlighten and be fun at the same time, with the online game "Where Does It Go?"

In some (but not all) cases Seattle will give you a 10% "margin for error" before refusing to take away your inappropriately stashed "trash". So read the rules carefully.

5) Fake Sunshine - Depending on where you are moving from, you may want to rethink your decorating choices and bring some "fake sunshine" indoors. Yes, I know blue/grey and shades of beige/brown are popular design choices. But when it is grey out...you don't necessarily want it grey inside too.

If  you do go with the neutral paint colors, like Pottery Barn Dillweed:

Be sure to add a healthy dose of the recommended "warm" companion color, Roasted Sesame

Or better yet, get a bit bolder with furniture and towel colors, or bring in some fake sunshine with your artwork:

For the complete scoop on Moving to Seattle, get yourself a copy of "The Newcomer's Handbook", my favorite "how to" for all people who are newly Seattle bound. I also recommend it for long term residents who want to know more about their fair city of Seattle.