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May 2009

May. 25, 2009 - Split-Entry, Split Foyer, Bi-Level, Raised Rambler, Raised Ranch or Splanch

Seattle and Eastside homes of this type are most often called Split Entry homes (not to be confused with split level homes).  In a split "level" home, the bedrooms are not on the same floor as the kitchen, as they are in a bi-level or split entry home. It's basically a rambler or ranch home, with a basement that is partially and sometimes entirely above ground.

A newer one, which we don't see too often, would likely look like this:

My favorite that you can find in this area, but don't see too often has this window configuration in the living room:

 

The standard version that you see most often in the Seattle Area looks like this one that my clients recently bought for $300,000 in Bothell King County in the Northshore School District.  It was a bank owned property that previously sold for $465,000. If it were not a bank owned property, it likely would have sold for about $360,000.

The top floor plan is pretty standard and usually all of the interior living space walls are easily modified, as the supports for the structure are rarely contained in those walls.

The floor plan above is the main floor plan and the house is pretty much a full rectangle, so that the basement square footage is often pretty close to identical to the main floor. They usually have 3 bedrooms up as shown. Many have a master bath, that is usually a shower bath, basically behind the hall bath and accessed from the master bedroom which would be larger than the size of the bedroom shown above.

There are usually two fireplaces, one on the outside living room wall and one on that same wall below, making a nice family room, often with sliding glass doors out to the yard. The kitchen often has a counter that makes the kitchen a U-shape, and separates the dining room from the kitchen.  Some prefer to make it one big kitchen with no wall, and with kitchen flooring extending into the dining room.

This floor plan above shows the master bath option, but most often there is a shower stall there and not a tub as shown.  The tub is only in the hall bath.  This version also shows the kitchen with a counter between the dining room and kitchen, which is more often the way I see it.

You should never try to price this style of home using a price per square foot method. If you do, only use the main floor footprint, as the basement doesn't value out the same. Make sure you know the main floor footprint from the tax records before studying the "comps".

Pay particular attention to the main floor footprint as they generally vary from just over 1,000 square feet to about 1,300 square feet.  Remember, that difference is often doubled, as the basement area is also larger. The home in the last photo that sold for $300,000 did have the extra master bath, and was 1,300 square feet on the main floor.  One of the larger ones. Some have one bath with two doors, one from the hall and a separate door into the bath from the master bedroom.  Most of the variations on the main floor have to do with the bathroom.

The one I note as my favorite with the big glass window is often much larger and pricier.  I had clients who bought one in early 2008 (a short sale) in Tam O'Shanter near the Lake in Bellevue that was over 1,750 square feet on the main level.

A lot of people don't like them at first sight, but they clearly offer you the most house for the least price. Men tend to like them more than women because of the big garage and tons of basement space in addition to the family room.  They almost always have a nice big yard, and there should be a deck behind the dining room and kitchen, with sliding glass doors and steps down to the yard.  This way you can access the yard from the family room, or from the upper living space.

It's a great "starter" home in this market, because you are not likely to grow out of it, and can usually have a 4th bedroom on the lower level in addition to the family room and garage. If the lot is large enough, you can even amplify the living space by finishing the garage and building a separate detached garage or carport to the side.

A great home that often meets the needs of most any growing family. Also makes a lot of sense for people who work from home, as the basement area usually has room for an office, if that room is not used for a 4th bedroom.  The lower level often has the laundry area at the bottom of the steps under the kitchen plumbing, and a 3/4 or full bath on the basement level behind the laundry area.

So the larger ones are easily 4 bedrooms, 2 3/4 baths, a living and family room both with fireplaces, plus a two car garage. A LOT of house for the money.

 

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May. 25, 2009 - Difference in Home Value from Peak to Present

In the previous post, I was showing the % change in pricing.  In the graph below you can see the current actual median price for a split entry home in these areas today, based on recent closed sales. Basically the same house has a different price, depending on where you buy it. You can pay more or less than these prices, as these are the median sold prices, meaning half the people may have paid more and half the people may have paid less, on average.

In the next post I will describe this home style in detail.

Below are the prices for this same home style back in the summer of 2007 when prices peaked for the most part.  Since different areas peaked at different times, I used the medain price for April through July or so in 2007.

required disclosure Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS 

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May. 25, 2009 - King County % change in Home Values

As a result of all of the posts written yesterday below, and the ones I have done the math for but have yet to write above this post, I've come up with an approximate formula for Home PrIce Changes in portions King County.  When calculating by School District, I can't do Seattle, because all of Seattle is the same school district.  So this method is of no value.

But I can compare the School District results to King County as a whole.  As you will see in the posts after this one, I have segregated a certain style of home that is fairly uniform from place to place.  This gives us a % change for a similar product in different places.

This method puts:

Lake Washington School District down 16% from peak

Bellevue School District down 19% from peak

Issaquah School District down 22% from peak

Northshore, Renton and Federal Way School Districts down 25% from peak

King County as a whole down 28%

This method excludes new construction for the most part, as this style of home is rarely built in recent history.  Consequently the % change in value is higher than numbers you might see that include new construction. It also excludes the added value of view considerations. It also excludes any pressure from the high end market priced over $800,000 by coincidence vs. design.

In some areas new construction pulls the median prices up, in some areas high end is suffering the most...consequently this analysis is in many cases the great equalizer of data sample.

 

Required disclosure Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS

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May. 24, 2009 - King County Home prices peak and beyond

Let me explain this graph a bit, as I was looking for some specific trending into that is set up in the previous 3 or 4 posts about Median Home Prices by School District. One, I was looking for peak prices and each area peaked as to price at a different time. Since the question of current price as a relation to peak is relevant in many discussions about home prices, it's important to know when the area peaked,.

For those who didn't read the previous posts before getting to this one, parameters are no lake or mountain views and homes sold for less than a million dollars arranged by school district, but only to the extent that school district is in King County.

The beginning is December of 2006 through October of 2007.  The next number "PYOY08" is the price a year from peak for each area.  So for Bellevue School district that number is July of 08 to compare with the peak of July of 07.  For Federal Way that peaked in March of 07, it's March of 08.  For those that peaked in June, it's June.  Wherever the one year point fell from peak, that's where the value is struck YOY one year after peak.

At the end I struck the median of Jan and Feb of 2009 and April and May of 2009.  So where you see an increase in the previous posts for May of 2009, and don't see the same result here that is because I combined April and May closings to date. None of the May stats are for the whole month of May closings, obviously, because it is not yet the end of May.  So to get a larger sample, I included all of April with May.

As usual, the final post on all of this work that I have been doing, will appear in Sunday Night Stats on Rain City Guide. Though I may have another here that shows each area's % change from peak to now and from 3/2005 to now from the first group of data and the high and low point. Those may appear in charts vs. graphs so you can more readily see the actual Median Price Per Square Foot numbers.

 

 

required disclosure Data is not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS

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May. 24, 2009 - Home Values by School District recent 6 months

King County Home Prices by School District.  In the graph below, I am sorting out the data from the end of the graph two posts below this one. Parameters are homes without view priced under a million dollars and the numbers are median price per square foot.

This graph shows a median upturn in May of 2009 for Lake Washington, Northshore and Renton school districts. I have another graph coming up that tells more of the story, but for those wondering, Federal Way recent downturn does appear to be about a lot of bank owned properties that went through a foreclosure.  Issaquah and Bellevue, not.  Virtually none, really.  The downtown there is more about screaming deals from builders or from people who have owned a long time and had a lot of equity in their homes. Remember, these are School Districts, so Issaquah is really a lot of Sammamish here in the May numbers. Parts of Bellevue as a City are in Lake Washington as a School District, so it is important to note that these are School District vs. City classifications.

I have a new graph showing where these numbers are from the peak of each area, that I find more interesting, so I will end this post here with the graph.

 

required disclosure Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS

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May. 23, 2009 - King County Home Prices by School District

The information in this graph is similar to that in the graph in the previous post, but I have consolidated the stats. Note - King County only

The rest of the criteria is identical except I calculated the data for March, April and May of each year as a single result.  We can more easily see Renton and Northshore pulling together and Bellevue and Lake Washington pulling together.  More as I calculate more data, i.e. volume, to see if volume is pushing on prices more than other facters, and foreclosures as part of that volume.

I need to take a long break as I have an appointment, but will try to get back to this later this evening.

 

required disclosre - Stats are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS

 

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May. 23, 2009 - Home Prices by School District in King County

This morning I started a study regarding median price per square foot by school district using Bellevue, Lake Washington, Issaquah, Northshore, Renton and Federal Way.

I removed water and mountain view considerations so view properties in the areas that have them didn't skew the data as to progression of prices, particularly as volume of sales diminished.

I cut off at a million dollars, assuming public schools and high priced homes might not have a correlation, given many would choose private schools in the upper tier of pricing.

I started in March of 2005 as I can't get data earlier than that by school district. The option to sort by school district drops off as sold property is moved to "the archives" during the month of Feb of 2005.

Other than the brief abnormality in April of 2005 in the Bellevue School District, there was a predictable pattern that went totally haywire in 2009.  It looks like a horse race with everyone keeping a certain pace until the end when all hell breaks loose and the #2 horse pulls way in front of the #1 horse, and Horse #3 gets pooped out LONG before horse #1 and horse #2.'

The obvious, you get a lot more house for your money here vs. there, is of assistance to people trying to choose home and school district simultaneously.  But I have to do a few more graphs to determine what is happening and why in the later stages of the graph.

Stay tuned - as this is a developing "story".

BE = Bellevue, LKW = Lake Washington, ISS = Issaquah, NTH = Northshore, REN = Renton and FED = Federal Way

 (required disclosure - these statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by NWMLS)

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May. 10, 2009 - Mommy gets a house for Mother's Day!

We never have a closing on Mother's Day, since it is always on a Sunday.  The next best thing is having your offer accepted on Mother's Day.

 

The Seller Mother would have preferred to wait for tomorrow.  I was able to convince the other agent that  my client, a relatively new Mommy with her first absolutely beautiful baby, would get a Mother's Day present if the offer was signed around today. 

People always worry from the time they submit an offer until it is signed and the property is taken off the public sites as "Pending" vs. "Active".  So whoopee!  The seller signed and my new Mommy client is having a Happy Mother's Day with less stress.

Happy Mother's Day everyone! Do a little something for a mother, anyone's mother, every mother you meet today, to make their day a little brighter.

 

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May. 5, 2009 - A short sale is not really for sale

On Rain City Guide, some time ago I wrote a post called Should You Buy a Short Sale Property?  That post was written for a client of mine who was already in the escrow process on a short sale.  It covers a lot of ground, but recently I am seeing more confusion by people making offers on short sale properties, than those in escrow on short sale properties.

This morning I followed a link on Twitter purporting to be a mini-tutorial on distressed property sales from short sales to foreclosures to REO Property.  It said this about short sales:

"A short sale is a property... that is put up for sale with the lender's permission..."

That is so not true.  The lender in most cases has NOT given permission, and does not interact with the short sale process until there is an offer on the property.

This is causing a lot of confusion, especially when the lienholder approval number is higher than the asking price.  The best analogy I can give is if a wife put a house up for sale without asking her husband.  Then when she has an offer, she goes to the husband for him to agree with the price she put the property on for.  He might refuse to sell it period, he might agree and sign the offer, he might hold out for more money than the asking price.  Such is a short sale. 

The person with the ultimate authority to approve the offer, is NOT consulted prior to the property going on market, in most cases.  So a short sale is not REALLY "for sale"...it's "maybe" for sale.  The lienholder may decide to reject ALL offers and take the property instead.

I'll try to write a post in more detail on Rain City Guide when I have a chance.  In the meantime, knowing a short sale is not necesarily "for sale" may help some people who are currently making offers on short sale properties.

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May. 3, 2009 - North King County Home Sales 2009

Slight increase YOY in the number of homes sold for $400,000 or less. In all other market segments, the rate of decline in home sales is increasing.

Slightly less than half of all homes for sale are in the $400,000 to $800,000 price range, leaving approximately 15% in the other three value segments.

Slightly less than half of all homes sold were also in the $400,000 to $800,000 price segment.  The $400,000 and under segment is selling faster than new inventory can replace the homes sold.   The over $800,000 price range holds approximately 30% of all homes in market, but only 11% of all homes sold.

(required disclosure) Statistics not compiled, posted or verified by NWMLS

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ARDELL DellaLoggia On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle. Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com

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