Feb. 12, 2009 - Seattle Real Estate - 98115
In the Green Lake area, a segment of Seattle Real Estate that I am connected to at least as much as the Kirkland/Bellevue/Redmond scene, it is hard to define in large enough and meaningful terms. The areas of 705 and 710 in mls-speak cover a broad area, and many people focus on portions of each, vs. one or the other. Consequently, I will deep-drill into the stats by Zip Code, though where 98115 meets 98103, the overlap is really a market segment, and not separate.
There are currently 122 houses for sale and 35 condos for sale in Seattle 98115. Remember in Seattle a townhome is "a house" and on the Eastside a townhome is "a condo", for the most part.
The purpose of breaking down the stats here is to find:
1) How many properties are listed at & selling at "bottom"
2) What the downpayments are on property being sold recently
Of the 122 homes for sale, only two are priced at $300,000 or below. Only 17 are priced between $300,000 and $400,000. 29 are priced between $400,000 and a half a million. 19 in the $500,000 to $600,000 range. 17 - $600,000 to $700,000. 14 - $700,000 to $800,000. 9, 6,3,1,1,1,1,1,1,0. In $100,000 increments, that takes is to the highest asking price in 98115 being just under $1.7M. Before we put that in graph form, let's go through the Pendings and Solds.
Of the 34 Pendings, 2 are $300,000 or less, so the absorption rate for that price range is zero months. 8 are in the $300,000 to $400,000, 7 are $400,000 to $500,000. 5 - $500,000 to $600,000, 6 - $600,000 to $700,000, 3 - $700,000 to $800,000, 2,0,0 (1 more at $1,350 asking price)
Now to solds - but I want to incorporate Trustee Sales, so I have to blend in with the King County Tax records, and not just the mls. Bear with me on this while I try to find the overlap. Hard to separate Residential in a General Query mode. They have too many "property use" fields in the County search options.
Let's start with the mls, and maybe just pull the foreclosure data for those that traveled from the Court House steps into the mls.
We have 96 sold properties coming up in the 4th Quarter. 473 for 2008 total, with a median price per square foot of $256. Median days on market at just 29 with median difference between asking and sold price almost nothing.
That puts the monthly sold expectation, annualized at 30-40 houses, and the 122 homes 3.5 months of inventory, with 35 as the sold per month on average. Pretty strong market conditions. So not sold equals wrong price in 98115.
I don't have to go any further in this ZIP CODE of 98115 to see that this is not a weak market segment.
TO BUY "AT BOTTOM" IN 98115, YOU MIGHT WANT TO FOCUS ON MAPLE LEAF, WEDGWOOD/Bryant (parts), MATTHEWS BEACH (without a view). This is not a short sale/foreclosure driven market. Doesn't mean you can't find one, but they are not influencing the market.
Let's see if we can find peak and bottom here. This market peaked at $272 MPPSF and if you stick to the lower priced parts of the Zip Code, you can get as low as a 25% or higher discount ,without foreclosures or short sales. But then you have that "basement as living space" going on.
Safe to call this in line with my previous thinking generally. 20% under peak would, yes, be bottom for 98115 - though hard to get. For a really nice house, don't expect too much of a discount. If you are needing a deep discount, try to find one of the few short sales or Trustee Sales, but you may have to buy those "sight unseen".
Most people who buy in 98115 to live there, really can't handle what you need to do to get the lowest prices.
(required disclosure) All Kirkland 98033 Condo stats hand compiled by ARDELL and not compiled, published or verified by NWMLS.
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