As I mentioned in an earlier post, the area of Seattle from Downtown north to 85th is the clear winner of any market segment in Seattle and Eastside single family home markets.
It is the only area where the lower tier is performing to this degree, with current inventory significantly less than the number of homes sold year to date. In all areas north of Downtown, the second tier pricing is also performing better than expected, better than the Eastside, and better than areas south of Downtown.
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Required Disclosure - The data used in this post is not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Hand calculated by ARDELL.
Aug. 30, 2009 - Market Stats - Seattle's Eastside Cities
That Kirkland 98034 is outperforming the other Eastside cities, and Kirkland's 98033 is quite astounding. even though that applies only to the lowest price tier of single family homes. The fact that you get more for your money, most times, ikn 98034 is really paying off in this market where people are looking at being able to stay in their home for a longer period.
Remember you can't compare these numbers to the Seattle Market Stats, because townhomes on the Eastside are not reflected, given they are condos on the Eastside, for the most part. In Seattle the lower price tier includes townhomes, because in Seattle they are by and large considered to be single family homes vs. condos.
Eastside homes are still reflecting a buyers market, and many are taking advantage of short sales and bank owneed properties. Sellers who are pricing at levels that are not reflective of current market conditions, are holding the market back in these prime areas.
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Required Disclosure - The data used in this post is not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Hand calculated by ARDELL.
Green Lake, Fremont, Queen Anne, Capitol Hill, Montlake, Ballard, Phinney Ridge, Broadmoor, Windermere, Laurelhurst, View Ridge, Bryant, U-District, Belltown, Madrona, Madison Park, First Hill, Leschi, Magnolia, Wallingford, Ravenna and parts of Wedgwood.
Earlier this year, Seattle Magazine had a Best Neighborhoods or Top Ten Best Places to Live in Seattle (Area) that had everyone scratching their heads, as their jaws dropped at "Excuse Me? Who said so?". Well, in doing my stats this week the jaw dropper, best by far stats came in for the neighborhoods shown in this first paragraph. As evidenced by the data below, the buyers have spoken.The area from Downtown Seattle up to 85th was the clear winner!
The under $400,000 category of single family homes, including single family attached townhomes, came in with astounding numbers. In no other area or price segment did we see the number of people buying (455) surpass the number of people trying to sell at present (133) to this degree. The second and upper level tiers, while declining as prices increase as expected, still...every category across the board appears to have outperformed all other areas of Seattle and the Eastside.
After I post the other areas separately, I'll wrap up the data to show how much better this area did vs. several other Seattle and Eastside neighborhoods and cities.
(required disclosure - The stats in this post and graph are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service - the are hand calculated by ARDELLd)
King County home sales are all at once both good and dismal, depending on the area and price range. In subsequent posts you will see that some areas are doing much better than expected, and some others are no where near recovery.
This is important to you whether you are a buyer or a seller of a home. If you are a buyer and think the market is improving, but are buying in an area and price range where it is not improving, you run the risk of overpaying for that home. If you are a seller and think the market is down 20%, but are in an area and price range that is only down 15%, you run the risk of underpricing your home.
Looking at the County as a whole does not do much to assist an individual buyer or seller, except to compare their immediate area of interest to the County norm. I will post several specific areas today so that you can see how to apply the general method of evaluating in the immediate area surrounding the home you are choosing to buy or sell.
Overall the market gives the appearance of being somewhat in balance with very little variance between the number of homes that want to be sold (yellow) and the number of homes that have sold YTD. However, that is a false positive due to "shadow inventory", that being the huge number of homes that will come on market if and when the market "gets better". There are many would be sellers sitting on the sidelines waiting for a better time to sell...there are also many would be buyers doing the same. That number differs in various price ranges.
What we do know is that the $8,000 credit is keeping that under $400,000 market at a point where there are more buyers than sellers. But it is doing virtually nothing to help the higher price tiers. In past markets the sellers of those homes would be "buying up". In this market many are renting and before you think that means the rental market is robust as a result...not so. Many are opting to move in with relatives and disappearing from the market altogether.
From a buyer's perspective, there is clearly less competition in the higher price tiers, giving you more leverage. BUT the safer bet as to future decline is in the lower price tier, as we do not expect the lending side of things to become as generous as they were in the last few years...ever.
From a seller's perspective, selling in the lower price tier is not an absolute given, and you will see in subsequent posts that in some areas, being priced under $400,00 is not a ticket to a sure sale.
What we don't know is if the market will change dramatically if the $8,000 credit is not extended and/or expanded beyond the current deadline of closing an escrow on November 30 or earlier. There's a lot of speculation there, but at this point it is anyone's guess what will happen in 2010. Personally I think they will pull the plug and see if the market is still breathing without the credit, before deciding whether or not to bring the credit back in its current or revised form. That is what they should do...what they will do is anyone's guess.
( Required Disclsoure - The stats in this graph and post are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service - they are hand calculated by ARDELLd)
Aug. 27, 2009 - King County Homes selling under $400,000
Fewer homes are selling, but more homes are selling for less than $400,000.
One of the things I found to be very interesting was the relationship of homes that sold for less than $400,000 so far this year, against the total number of homes sold. Comparing that to previous years we can see the HUGE change in that relationship in 2006. The fact that the total number of home sales dropped from 19,783 to 17,631, but the number that sold for less than $400,000 dropped by HALF was ahuge sign that people were buying more home than they could afford.
This is another key factor in the mortgage crisis. How could 14,399 people afford homes for $400,000 or less in 2005, and then all of a sudden only 7,998 were buying in that price range with 10,000 or so paying a lot more? That was the red flag saying..."hey, something's not right here".
In 2001, 82% of people buying single family homes in King County were paying $400,000 or less. The fact that 11,556 people could afford homes for $400,000 or less in 2001 tells us a LOT about future market conditions. Only 4,765 people bought in that range this year, representing half of all homes sold.
I expect to see volume increasing a lot more than I expect to see prices decreasing...from here.
I'm doing a lot of month to month breakdowns as to price and volume that I will post throughout the next day or so.
Required Disclosure: Stats not posted, compiled or verified by Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Greenlake and Fremont Home Prices are down 20% to 25% under peak prices.
Because most of the price results whether you are looking in Greenlake or Fremont, Bellevue or Woodinville, are pretty much the same as to % down, posting them all gets redundant. The mortgage market has created a drop of about 20% under peak pricing, and the mortgage market affects all neighborhoods, cities and towns in the Seattle Area (and elsewhere).
There was a slight variance in single family homes and townhomes in 98103. Single family homes were down 24% and townhomes were down 20%. Not a significant difference and given the variety of home age and style outside of the townhome market, the difference could simply be about "newer" vs. "older". But worth noting.
One of the surprising differences was in volume of sales. The single family home market actually went up in volume this spring season from 137 sales to 140 sales. The townhome market in the same area dropped from 118 sales to 61 sales. Given more affordable homes on regular sized lots, more of those homes sold at the expense of the townhome market.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: These stats are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service.)
Woodinville Home Prices are down about 20% from peak values.
About 70% of the people who tried to sell their homes this year, were not able to sell them. This matches the stats I remember from the last recessionary period where only 3 in every 10 home sellers were able to sell their homes.
109 people sold their homes and 251 are still trying to sell them. 66% of the 251 people trying to sell their homes have asking prices over the median sold prices.
The median asking price of homes currently for sale is OVER the median price at peak pricing. Peak median prices in Woodinville in 2006 and 2007 was $625,000. The median asking price today for those NOT sold is $649,000.
The market is down 20% from peak pricing, yet many sellers are still asking not only peak prices, but over peak prices. I'm not really sure how that can be, but for the 3 out of 10 people who are selling their homes, the fact that many people are being unrealistic, is helping them get theirs sold.
(NWMLS requires this disclosure: Statistics are not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Mulltiple Listing Service.)
Starter Homes defined as $350,000 or less with at least 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths.
BK = Bothell, Kenmore
KBR = Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond
03,14,15,25 = last two digits of zip codes in North Seattle
Because I am seeing more people coming out to buy a starter home for $350,000 or less, I thought it would be a good time to point out why the odds of getting one are greater...and where.
Worth noting, in the green and blue areas, townhomes are generally NOT included, in the orange area townhomes are generally included. That makes the liklihood of finding a true single family home with a yard in those areas of 98103, 98115, 98117, 98125 even smaller. So if you are on the Seattle side, heading up toward Shoreline or points south, will likely be necessary.
The good news is you are almost EIGHT times more likely to find one in Kirkland Bellevue and Redmond, than you were in 2007.
In Kenmore and Bothell, homes sold in 2009 for $350,000 or less, represented more than 1/3 of the total homes sold.
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Required Disclosure - The data used in this post is not compiled, verified or posted by The Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Hand calculated by ARDELL.
ARDELL
DellaLoggia
On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle.
Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com
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