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April 2009

Apr. 15, 2009 - Do Homebuyers Make these 10 Mistakes?

There's an article floating around the web: "Top 10 mistakes of First Time Buyers"  first seen on Smart Money. I generally don't like to regurgitate popular web articles, but would like to add my $.02 FWIW on this one.

1) The article suggests that the #1 mistake first time homebuyers make is not knowing how much home they can afford. I think that's old news, as lenders are more cautious these days about giving someone a mortgage they can't afford.  My particular beef with the response to first time buyers in this article is that they should get the answer from a mortgage professional.

My advice would be to determine the monthly payment, including taxes and condo fees or home owner's insurance of the type of property you might buy. Let's say you are paying rent of $1,000 a month, and the monthly payment if your purchased would be $2,000. I would suggest that you "pretend" you are paying $2,000 a month by religiously, on the first of each month, pay your $1,000 rent and put an extra $1,000 into your savings account.  If you can do this for up to a year without struggling, you have proven to yourself that you really can afford to pay the amount the "mortgage professional" told you that you could afford.  Don't just take someone else's word for it.  Try it before you buy it.

2) Making assumptions that foreclosures are great deals. My thoughts?  Rarely, if ever, can a first time buyer purchase a true foreclosure property at the courthouse steps.  I'm sure it's very rare. So they are likely really talking about bank-owned properties and short sales. More often than not those are better deals. I think more people make the mistake of thinking a huge price reduction is a great deal and getting burned that way, than who get burned overpaying for a foreclosure property.

3) Showing the seller or seller's agent how much you love the house. Actually, I see the opposite more often. Buyers "kicking tires" and trying to convince the seller he's got a crappy house, to get the price down.  Often the seller will just say, "Hey! If you don't like my house, get out!"  You want a balance of letting the sellers know that you do like their house, but market conditions scare you and so you are cautious about overpaying for it, even though in a different market it would have been worth more.  Sellers appreciate people who like their house, and sometimes will sell it for less to a buyer who loves their house. Sellers appreciate a first time buyer's fear of losing their downpayment to declining home values.  Sincere and honest responses are good.  I would caution buyers looking at homes when the seller is not home, that often the seller is hanging out next door or across the street. Screaming how much you love it because you think no one is home, especially when you are outside of the house, is not recommended. But pretending you don't really like it, but are making an offer on it anyway?  No one's buying that ploy.

4) Find a good buyer's agent. The article goes on to recommend finding an EBA (Exclusive Buyer's Agent). Maybe EBAs will make a comeback in this market, but generally they are too few and far between for that to be good advice.  An agent with local experience is often better than an agent from another County who happens to be "an EBA". No matter how good your agent is, stay engaged in the whole process.  I would say the bigger mistake buyer's make is delegating everything to the agent, period.  You will be the one living there.  You will be the one paying that mortgage payment.  Stay engaged in the process.

5) Understanding the full costs of homeownership.  I agree with this one.  I especially recommend that people make sure the $8,000 First Time Homebuyer Credit in 2009 be used as a reserve against unexpected (or expected) repairs.

6) Failing to budget for property taxes.  Nope - these are almost always paid by the lender for a first time buyer, and part of the monthly payment.

7) Assuming your first offer will be accepted. Nope - more often the first offer doesn't go through to closing due to inspection issues than failed negotiations.

8) Skipping the inspection. Nope - Even in the hot market, a buyer often does a pre-inspection prior to offer or an informational inspection in multiple offers.  I don't think I'd let a buyer buy a house without any inspection prior to closing, unless they were going to tear it down and are buying at lot value.

9) Doing too much too fast.  I give my buyer clients my Mom's advice "give it a year".  By the time you are living there a year for 4 seasons, you know what you really need to add or change, including landscaping issues.  You don't want to pull great flowers, thinking they are weeds, or plant over bulb you don't know are there.  Give it a year and only do what you have to during that time.

10) Failing to have a mortgage contingency clause. Nope.  I think they were stretching to get to 10 things in these last few.  They should have quit at 5 :)  I have never seen this happen.  Making the contingency too short is more the mistake, vs. not having one at all. Haven't seen one in 20 years where the buyer forgot to have a mortgage contingency.

Rushed through the end there as I have an appointment.  If you have any questions or disagree, I'll follow up in the comments as needed.

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Apr. 12, 2009 - Seattle Area Home Prices just prior to $8,000 Homebuyer Credit

Refer to the post below this one to get the full significance of this chart.  Home prices at year end and early in 2009 remained unchanged as you can see in the chart below, until the stimulus package was signed by Obama.  The % of 2009 Assessed Value of these homes taken just before the credit passed, remain at 10% below what they became after the credit was passed.  Approximately 30 days or more beyond that date is used to gather data, to allow time for those transactions entered into after the credit passed, to close escrow.

Perhaps more surprising is that the closing in late March and early April came in at 100% on average of the 2009 Assessed Values.  Not because of the 10% increase in pricing necessarily, as Spring Bump will create some upswing that may later come back down at the end of 2009.  What is most surprising is that buyers are paying the new assessed values, which were at the time we first became aware of them, consider to be "inflated' prices.  This market continues to surprise us. 

(required disclosure) Information in charts is not compiled or verified by NWMLS.

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Apr. 12, 2009 - 10% Increase in Sales Price as % of Assessed Value

In the chart below you can see that at the very end of 2008 these homes were selling at an average of 91.8% of the new 2009 Assessed Values. I removed the high and the low % and averaged the remaining 8 homes.

 

The homes that closed, in the same area, At the end of March and early April, which would reflect actions taken for the most part AFTER the $8,000 Stimulus Credit was passed, the prices jumped to an average of 100% of the 2009 Assessed Values.

More on this in the next post showing the closings between these two time periods, and just before the credit was passed.

(required disclosure) Information in charts is not compiled or verified by NWMLS.

 

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Apr. 12, 2009 - Some Surprising Statistics - Home Prices

I have a couple more charts to post before doing my regular Sunday Night Stats post on Rain City Guide.  I was quite surprised last week to see a hint of a full 10% increase in prices in the first closings since Obama passed the Stimuls Package.  This week I am seeing the same 10% increase reflected in sold prices as a % of the properties newer 2009 assessed values. 

More on this as I post more data.

(required disclosure) Information in charts is not compiled or verified by NWMLS.

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Apr. 6, 2009 - Seattle Real Estate - 2009

Seattle Real Estate - Where are we heading in 2009? Is Obama's Stimulus Credit and the $8,000 First Time Buyer Credit having an impact on Seattle Home PricesEnquiring minds want to know  :)

I'm storing this graph here for now, and will be adding more going back to 2000 and breaking out segments to show where we are in time much more clearly. 

Still much more work to do on this post, but let me note, since someone asked this question on RCG, that this is a continuation to my post over there where I am studying the first week in April against historical data.  Accordingly ALL info in this graph is the same period, the first week of the month, for all months and all years. Just keep everything parallel.

 

(required disclosure) Stats are not compiled, posted or verified my NWMLS.

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Apr. 5, 2009 - Seattle Blogs

Seattle blogs, that are not Real Estate Blogs, of interest:

Seattle Spin Girl About Town  "the urban girl's guide to nightspots, restaurants, fashion, networking, shopping, entertainment, and fun." There's lots of interesting stuff on Girl About Town, but I wonder if the links are paid advertisements or personal recommendations, given the format.  Very Seattle, I must admit, like this section on Green Drinks. 

Green Drinks. Try an organic Vodka like Square One or Salmon-Safe or organic wine like Badger Mountain or biodynamic wine like Bonterra that takes organic to the next level.

Hmmm, not too sure how up to date it is given they seem to be talking about Spring Runway 2008!  Be careful to check the dates on events and make sure they are not talking about last year.

Street Fashion in Seattle - Pike and Pine Blog is clearly worth a visit to check out the photos, but again...somewhat out of date and clearly not enough posts to garner daily or even weekly visits.

Urban Fashion Network  Is more to my liking regarding variety and frequency of content.  Would be better if they had categories in the sidebar. I saw a few interesting thing that screamed Seattle at first glance, like organic cotton dresses and Save The Whales by Shopping April 25th.

Feel bad to diss anyone for not blogging frequently, as I don't blog as often here on my blog as I do over at Rain City Guide. When the info is not time sensitive, and someone has been bloggng for over 3 years, a blog can have a lot of content without the need for constant frequency.  But I think fashion is an area where one would expect change at least seasonally, so at least one post a week would be nice.

Let me know which, if any, of the linked blogs you think should end up in the sidebar here or over at Rain City Guide, or both.

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ARDELL DellaLoggia On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle. Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com

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