Mar. 30, 2008 - Home Sales Statistics King County Washington

             <$200,000  -      $400,000  -       $600,000  -     $800,000  -     $1,000,000  -   >$1M +

January YOY

01/05       361 - 37          1,157 - 34           319 - 37          116 - 46           42 - 61         48 - 104

01/06       222 - 27             971 - 29           481 - 32          162 - 41           74 - 61         66 -  59

01/07       114 - 29             895 - 45            510 - 53         208 - 56           85 - 45          91 - 77

01/08         73 - 58             578 - 61           375 - 59          120 - 57           65 - 69          68 - 69

February YOY

02/05       417 - 31          1,419 - 27           482 - 26          159 - 47           58 - 55          66 -  67

02/06       233 - 21          1,239 - 21           557 - 24          190 - 37           85 - 35          69 -  65

02/07       128 - 25          1,080 - 35           675 - 35          240 - 53           91 - 68         109 - 57

02/08         77 - 32             767 - 54           482 - 58          174 - 56           69 - 50          71 - 48

Combined Basis Jan + Feb YOY

2005          778 - 34         2,576 - 30           801 - 31          275 - 46          100 -  58        114 - 85

2006          455 - 25         2,210 - 24         1,038 - 29         352 - 41           159 - 55        135 - 59

2007          242 - 27         1,975 - 41         1,185 - 45         448 - 55           176 - 54        200 - 72

2008          150 - 45         1,345 - 57            857 - 58         294 - 56           134 - 59        139 - 58

% of Total Sales Jan + Feb

2005           17%                   55%                   17%               5.9%                  2.1%            2.45%

2006          10.45%               55.4%                 23%                8%                   3.6%            3.1% 

2007            5.7%                 46.7%                 28%             10.6%                4.16%           4.7%

2008            5.1%                 46%                    29%              10%                   4.6%            4.7%

Total Sales

2005 - 4,644

2006 - 4,352

2007 - 4,226

2008 - 2,919

Mar. 25, 2008 - A snippet from a conversation with Jeff Turner in early 2007

We have not reached the tipping point yet?

Ahhh...we have reached many points of tipping...

The (real estate) industry has about five main bullet points to address, and have already chosen how to address those to a large extent and over a period of say 15 years.  Their chosen course in each disappoints me, obviously.  Some are more problematic for me than others. Are these courses reversible?  More importantly, should I care if they are not reversed or moved forward differently?  Give me a sec.  I have to go ask Jesus.

1) Broker survival-compensation models (becoming landlords of cowboys.  The cowboys is my issue more than the fee structure.  Starting our own company was a huge eye opener though.  I see it...I get it...but I don't care much about the big picture of broker compensation...just the impact on consumers of the cowboys that structure creates.

2) Buyer Agency and all that goes with (disclosure of and negotiation of the Buyer Agent Fee i.e. Redfin.  I may negotiate at full price or more or less...but I never say the buyer agent fee is none of the buyers business...as "the industry" does.  That is why Redfin is the one and only and hated for it.  The buyer agent fee is not supposed to be any of the buyer's damn business LOL.  A huge host of injustices in the everyday market place lies herein...so it is my main focus.  It is also where the consumer's intelligence is highly insulted.

3) Consumer's disgust at the control and arrogance factor (you HAVE TO pay this and you HAVE TO use us and you HAVE TO...just because the industry has gotten away with way too much for way too long, is no excuse for this stance.  Be happy that you "made hay while the sun shined" and move in a new direction people.

4) Realtor.com is a monopoly, and by definition of monopoly, unchallengedly stagnant. Enter Zillow as the response.  You really have to admire Dalton for his Fearless Leader stance...ask yourself, why is Dalton defending Realtor value against Redfin?  Why wasn't it the CEO of another Brokerage.  Where is Dalton vs. Kelman not a match?  He has taken on that role...very wise man....defender of the Realtor.

5) Self Governed Trade Association The Big Kahuna has not met it's obligations that go with privelege.  It did forever...until...all agents stopped representing only sellers.  Their response to the change was to "pretend" change...not "good enough"  The world is rebelling...including the DOJ  And well they should.  Self governance to the point of Courts deferring back to the Realtor Organization, comes with HUGE public policy responsibility.  They blew it...badly...and have given no sign of doing anything but staying that course.  If the Realtor organization only looks out for the Realtor and not the consumer, then they need to be dismantled and have less power.  They were given huge power because all was seller oriented.  Agent wants exactly what seller consumer wants...motivation of agent same as motivation for seller consumer, so large power and self governance given them.  Buyer consumer gaining rights...Realtor Organization not responding in consumer protection fashion...time to take it down to size and no longer defer to their "judgment" and control.

Has there ever before in history been an intervention by government into the affairs of the Realtor Organization?  Why now?  The BIG answer...not the small excuse they found to do so.

Oh, and Jesus says in response to my question at the beginning: "Whatever You Do For the LEAST of My Brethren, You Do Unto Me".  So that leaves me at point #2 where you "found" me :) 

Mar. 15, 2008 - Pottery Barn Paint Colors - Benjamin Moore

I often recommend that people check out Pottery Barn paint colors when trying to decide on a paint color when getting their home ready for market.  Plain white or off-white is often just too boring, and in a market with lots of other homes on market, sometimes you want to stand out a bit.

I am writing this post today for a man Kim and I visited this week who is preparing a home for market over in Shoreline.  A small home in a private, lush setting with medium colored wood trims around the wall of garden windows and for kitchen cabinetry.   I recommended that he use a little color in the high vaulted walls in the kitchen to accent the height of the space.  You don't want to use colors that are too dark anywhere in a small space.  Perhaps semolina in the kitchen and stem green in the master bedroom areas.  By painting both the bedroom and the dressing area the same color, you expand the size of the master space beyond just the bedroom.

For a small home with medium colored natural wood trims, the colors that work best together from the above list are semolina, stem green, suntan yellow, brookside moss

Due to the coloring of the millwork, I recommend from the above chart, Semolina, Stem Green.  Semolina may be a little too bright except in the kitchen where there is not much wall space due to the cabinets.  Stem Green in both the kitchen would likely work well, but I don't think semolina can carry into the bedroom.  Suntan and acadia look nice together, but you want the house to blend well with all of the lush dark greens peeking in from the outside.

A little color goes a long way in a small home and Pottery Barn clearly spends a ton of money determining which colors are popular at any given time.  You can benefit from their research dollars by emulating or choosing from their prechosen colors.

The right color can really make your millwork pop.

Here in Seattle where you want a lot of internal brightness to compensate for the lack of sun, painting only the angled accent walls, instead of the entire room, keeps everyting light and bright even when the weather says otherwise.

Mar. 7, 2008 - Yes, Open Houses DO sell houses

Did you ever ask yourself how it can be that you meet people all the time that first saw the home they live in at an Open House.  Yet if you Google "Open Houses" you get story upon story of how Open Houses rarely, if ever, help to sell a house?

Did you ever ask yourself why you can't drive through any neighborhood on a Sunday between 1 and 4 without running into scads of Open House tent signs pointing to an Open House, if they don't work?

Mainly it's because Open Houses DO work for the owner who is selling the house but they DON'T work for the agent who is holding the house open.  Many people see a house at an Open House and then call their agent to buy it.  The same agents who will say Open Houses don't work, will be the same runs crying the blues that a buyer who came to an Open House bought the house...but not with the Open House agent.

Because often the agent holding the Open House is not the listing agent, you read many stories about how they are a "waste of time".  They are not a waste of time for the owner who is trying to sell the house...but often they are a waste of time for the agent who stands to gain nothing if both the seller and buyer have an agent...but the Open House agent is "none of the above."

Open Houses DO work, and often, for the seller.  Sometimes people go home after an Open House and can't get that house out of their mind.  They come back later with their own agent and buy it.

Mar. 6, 2008 - Pricing Your Home Right and Having Patience

It is more difficult now more than ever to determine whether or not you have priced your home right.

With average days on market doubling in many areas, it is hard to tell if you are not getting showings and offers because your price is incorrect, or simply because there are fewer buyers in the marketplace.

It is not unusual for buyers to want to see price reductions, but it is also not unusual for buyers to want to pay less than asking price.  Consequently you could get a triple whammy if you lower your price to get an offer, the offers are coming in at less than asking price AND then you get hit hard at the time of the Home Inspection.

Still, I think the next 6 months will be better than the last six.  Just try to be more patient, more flexible, and try not to worry if you don't get an offer in the first 10 days.  The market is not a Buyer's Market and still leans to the seller side for the most part, but only if the seller is realistic and pays a lot of attention to condition and pricing well.

Patience is a virtue.