Aug. 18, 2008 - Townhomes - Downtown Redmond

Three bedroom townhomes in Downtown Redmond are beating the odds.  When it comes to what is selling and what is not, 3 bedroom townhomes within 1/2 mile of Downtown Redmond ARE selling.  Prices are not holding up at the highest price, and there has been some modest downturn in pricing in the last 4 months, but nothing dramatic.  Not as low as many buyers would like them to go.

If you own a 3 bedroom townhome near downtown Redmond, you have a 90% change of selling it in less than 30 days.

That may not sound like any great shakes...but believe me it is!  Not many home sellers can be confident that their property will receive an offer within 30 days these days.

A closer look at 3 bedroom townhomes near Downtown Redmond:

• There are only 6 for sale and at least two of them are priced incorrectly as they are really 2 bedroom townhomes and not 3 bedroom townhomes
• There are 3 currently in escrow
• 12 have sold in the last 6 months

So if you are priced correctly for what you are and condition is as tip-top as you can get it...you will sell.  List it and it will sell is not common these days.  That kind of confidence is rare.  So if you have a 3 bedroom townhome near Downtown Redmond, know that your market is about as good as it gets these days.

While it may look like a 6 month supply of inventory with 12 sold and 6 for sale, likely only 2 of those are positioned to sell as to condition and price.  Anything not selling is not selling for a reason that the seller can fix...and just isn't fixing.  A truly motivated seller can sell if they have this product in this location.  In this market...that is truly a blessing. 

The only oddity is that some people seem to be paying the same price for a 1 car garage as they are for a 2 car garage.  Or paying the same for a tandem garage as they would for a true 2 car garage.  Using price per square foot methods does not account for garage differences.  That is the only caution to buyers who use price per square foot methods.  The garage is not a consideration unless you make it a consideration...and it is wise to do so.

Aug. 18, 2008 - Kirkland Condos - Downtown

When we look at sold prices, we don 't get the real story.  Yes, sold prices are generally lower on a price per square foot basis than those that are not sold.  But the real story is in what are people buying, and what are the odds of selling at all?

If you own a one bedroom condo in Downtown Kirkland, price is not the only solution to selling it.

• There are currently 19 people trying to sell a one bedroom condo in Downtown Kirkland
• Only two 1 bedroom condos are in escrow
• Only 7 one bedroom condos have sold in the last 6 months

That means you have about a 1 in 10 to a 1 in 18 chance of selling at all.

19 condos represents about a year and a half of inventory.  2 sold means that maybe 2 of the 19 will sell and the remaining 17 people may have to do something besides selling.  Rent it out.  Stay in it.  Let it go back to the bank.  What are the options if selling is not an option?

Will price alone cause all 19 to sell?  Not likely.  Even if half the people take their property off the market, all of the remaining condos will not likely sell in the next few months.

What does that mean to someone who is planning to put one on market?  Take the lowest possible price at which you will sell it and list it at that price.  Make it look the very best at that low price even though you feel like you are "giving it away".  And then...after all that...know that it still may not sell.

It is not likely if only 7-9 people have bought a 1 bedroom condo in Downtown Kirkland in the last 6 months, that 19 will sell.  Yes, yours
CAN beat out the 19 already on market, but not without extreme sacrifice of some kind.

• Is it price? 
• Is it condition? 
• Is it location? 
• Is it view? 

There is no one right answer.  Sometimes its price and sometimes it's view and location. That the competition is severe when you are #20 on market, is all that is a known factor. 

Aug. 12, 2008 - Seattle Real Estate - King County

Below is a graph I saw on Seattle Bubble that I found fascinating and am reposting here with Tim's permission.

 I love this graph as it makes me want to say "Do you feel like a Boston today?" the way that Clint Eastwood in Dirty Harry said "Do you feel lucky today, punk?"

I will shortly be posting my 12 months forward predictions on Rain City Guide, and will be linking to this post.  Seattle Bubble is pretty much the only source of info that I find of value as to data.  My interpretation of that data is different, but the data is invaluable.

What you are seeing above is where other markets have gone as to pricing, and yes, I do feel like a Boston, so maybe that makes me a punk :)  I only disagree with Seattle Bubble in that they are tracking markets from their previous peak, and I think you have to track all markets from July of 2007 forward.  We are not a lagging market.  There are two completely different components of the market downturn, and Seattle totally escaped the first which is showon on the graph above for those markets that turned down in 2005.

What is very important is how all of these markets react to the Mortgage Meltdown that happened simultaneously nationwide, and not how they performed from their peak of two years ago.  I expect cities that turned down in 2005 to do better than Seattle in that regard, because they have bargains to sell, and we essentially do not, by relative comparison.

See Rain Cty Guide for my 12 month  forward predictions and market commentary.