Nov. 10, 2007 - Home sales way down October 2007

That was scary. In the first three columns you can see that July 05 to 06 to 07 produces an increasing number of sales. In the second three you can see the difference in October sales from 05 to 06 to 07. So we can't just say "Of course sales are lower in October than in July. Yes, that is true. But the deep reduction in sales for October of 2007 cannot be explained away by brushing off the difference as July to October issues.

This raises some more questions for me. Does this have something to do with this price range? I doubt it. But let's keep going to see if we can pinpoint exactly when this trend started, since July sales 05 to 06 to 07 were increasing from year to year while Octobers are...well...pretty darned scary. First I'll do all sales of King County on this same basis without restrictions as to price. In the next post I will do them all together, and then strip out the Single Family Homes sales from the condo sales.

Nov. 10, 2007 - King County Sales $400,000 to $600,000

Throughout the year I have been tracking the market in this manner to see the changes in inventory and the "propensity of the market to sell". Since one would expect the market to sell unevenly from month to month, and more in spring and Summer than in Fall and Winter, I am using this "fan of sales" method to add more value to Absorption Rate statistics.

It sounds good in July to say "there are 3 months of inventory", but not accurate. Using the three months prior to determine absorption rates gives a false picture, as you can see from the below graph. Absorption Rate statistics is an area where hindsight does NOT have 20/20 vision.

Inventory today in this price range of $400,000 to $600,000 in King County is 3,997 on market vs. 3,386 on July 6, 2007. Properties currently in escrow of 1,030 compared to 1,657 on July 6, 2007 tells us that Inventory is up 18%, while pending sales are down 60%. Closed sales are down 45% comparing July to October.

In my next post I will compare July to October sales in this same price range for King County for 2005 to 2006 to 2007. One of the best things about "Stream of Consciousness Blogging" is that I don't know how these numbers will compare, and we all find out together.