1) Determine your price range - 3 to 4 times your annual income plus your downpayment, is a good guideline if you don't want to talk with a lender yet. Stick closer to 3 times.
2) Go to my site or any Broker's Website with a property search function
3) Put in all of the cities you might like to live in
4) Put in your price range
5) If you are using my site, you will see two types of property. Active and Offer STI. The Offer STI properties are "SOLD Subject to Inspection", but will most often better represent what your dollars will buy in a given area.
6) Narrow down the places where you would like to live and can afford, using this method
I dubbed 2007 the year of the Never Ending January. In January of almost any given year, stale inventory from "the previous year", which on Jan 1 could be two weeks ago, sits - while everyone runs for "the hot NEW listing".
In most years, that January market fades into "high season" long before this time of year. But in 2007 we seem to be having a never ending January. New listings are either gobbled up quickly, or left to go stale and rot along with the rest of the stale inventory, some of which is still hanging around since 2006.
Is the market slow? I can't say it's slow, since my most recent seller closing had its best offer in less than 12 hours, and sold at top dollar. What we are seeing are buyers being exceptionally discerning, and looking really hard for value. We are also seeing buyers saying, at these interest rates THAT just isn't worth it. The rise in interest rates, though only up a fraction, has had an impact on people's willingness to buy.
They will still buy a property, but they are also willing to pass it by if the seller is being unreasonable as to price, or if negotiations go back and forth into a first or second counter. Price and condition of property has NEVER been more important, in recent history, as it is today.
Both buyers and sellers have to really roll up their sleeves and be careful about valuing the property they are selling or buying. There is no margin for error! The days of being "about right" as to home value are OVER! A hair off as to price can make the difference between "in escrow" and being thrown on the pile of "no one wants 'em". And once you land in the "stale inventory" pile, it's really, really hard to get out.
Not a good time for agents to "be nice" to sellers and let them "try their price" without strong warnings regarding how that stance may cost them $10,000 or more somewhere down the line. Consumers need to bite the bullet and find an agent they may not like, who will give them the cold-hard facts. Being a little bit wrong right now, can cost you plenty.
I don't often show property down in Maple Valley, but it is hard to find a more idyllic setting at such a reasonable purchase price.
When the owner told us about the coyotes that you can hear at night, I thought that would be alarming to the couple with two small children. But no. Apparently people who like to live out in a country setting, are well prepared for a coyote to stop by and visit.
The couple wasn't in hearing distance when the owner was talking about the coyotes, so I said, "You may need a dog", to which the couple responded instantly, "Oh, you mean the coyotes."
Other than Inventory being a little overstated, the King County stats in the $400,000 to $600,000 range don't differ a lot from my normal microcosm of Kirkland, Bellevue and Redmond stats. I think wen you do all of King County, the higher end doesn't sell as well as the K-B-R area. Other than that, nothing of great note here as far as I can see.
I don't use average sale price as a sign of appreciation the way that many do. I use apples to apples specifics for that. I'm seeing a 25% to 75% overall gain for people who bought to years ago and are selling now, depending on product and area. The higher appreciation for the lower priced properties, generally speaking. Under $200,000 gaining more than the $400,000 to $600,000 properties due to a number of reasons, most importantly being "you buy it because it's there and can afford it" and don't fine tune value as much.
It's been an interesting stat calculation time. I'll post the two big 6 mo charts over at Rain City Guide for the masses who just want an overview. The many and more detailed charts will only appear here on my blog.
A lovely progession of color expansion moving from Jan sales through June sales and into Active and In Escrow. Totally as expected. Rarely does life fall exactly where you expect it to fall. This segment involves the largest number of home buyer's and sellers. At year end I will add $200,000 to $400,000 to this category. But since it currently has a basically unexplained abnormality with closings down in June, I'm leaving them out, as that point is best highlighted separately for May vs. June statistics.
Jul. 6, 2007 - Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond Over $850,000
I'm not going to break this segment down any further than higher than $850,000. Obviously the inventory competes for fewer buyers, but not to any extreme. Having shown this segment it's a mixed bag of some overpricing, some people wanting too much for properties with weaknesses like noisy location or shared driveways. People pricing of other active listings instead of solds. Lots of just bad judgment calls and people hanging on to a price that isn't working for them given the ration of buyers to sellers. But overall, we're not looking at a huge inventory vs. potential buyers. Being a little more realistic about price would solve this segment. Some are not real sellers and end up not selling at all.
Jul. 6, 2007 - Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond $600,000 to $800,000
My best guess here is that condo conversions and new construction generally are in play in this market segment. Consequently resale is having a harder time competing in the marketplace causing excess inventory to some degree, but not excessively. Sellers will simply need to adjust price based on competition. The most dramatic difference here is that "in escrow" properties far exceeds a one month supply based on May and June sales. That is another clue that we are seeing new construction and condo conversions here and the closings for that 179 in escrow will get spread out over 2-3 months of closings or more.
Jul. 6, 2007 - Kirkland, Bellevue Redmond $400,000 to $600,000
Inventory is way up here, but sales are steady. This is the market segment with the most volume and activity. Less than a two month supply anyway you slice it. Market reacting as expected for this time of year.
Jul. 6, 2007 - Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond $200,000 to $400,000
This appears to be the only category where June sales are less than May sales. I think increased interest rates, tighter lending standards and tighter appraisal standards have impacted this segment moreso than others. Still, inventory vs. in escrow is clearly not excessive and in escrow far exceeds both May and Jne closings. So an odd trend, but not predictive of market weakness overall.
ARDELL
DellaLoggia
On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle.
Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com
You can find many great Seattle real estate agents and loan officers on ActiveRain.com ARDELL DellaLoggia is a proud member of the ActiveRain Real Estate Network, a free online community to help real estate professionals grow their business.
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