Dec. 30, 2007 - King County Condo Sales - 2005

Seattle Real Estate continues to be a point of discussion around the Country.  As noted in the post below, I will continue to post data in various segments from 1/1/05 through year end of 2007 over the next week or more so we can all use this data to draw some conclusions and make some predictions.

Below is the condo activity in King County during 2005 which we will later compare with 2006 and 2007 to try to get a handle on 2008 before it happens.  The information in both charts is identical.  I am posting both pie and bar charts, as I don't know which I will need later when making some comparisons.  It is easier for me to retrieve them from here for future posts, than to find them later in small thumbnail sizes. 

By posting the data separately, readers can extract the data, put it into their own excel spreadsheets, and draw their own conclusions separately from mine.  Many more charts to come.

Note that as always, I use NWLS as a source for data, but this data is not compiled by NWMLS and the data and graphs are done by me, Ardell.  It is a rule of NWMLS that I disclose this.

Dec. 29, 2007 - Seattle Real Estate

Given Seattle Real Estate is one of the few markets in the Country that is faring well, and much better than most, many want to know how that is, why that is, and most importantly...if that is true and if it IS true, than will it sustain or are we just a "lagging market"?

To consider our trends through 2008 and beyond, we need to go back to 2005 and 2006 as a comparison point.  To some degree my theory is that Seattle did not have the same upswing from 1998 to 2005 as the rest of the Country.  So Greenspan's prediction that an upswing will last 7 years would suggest that the rest of the Country completed their upswing by 2005, while Seattle did not.  That would partially explain why we kept going up after the rest of the country stopped, and began their descent.

I can't do all of King County prior to 2005, but will show the longer term trends in smaller apples to apples housing segments.  But for the next many posts I will get the data up from 2005 to present for all of King County.  I will also be breaking down all sales, including vacant land, multi-family, manufactured homes, single family homes and condos as show below, into SFH - Single Family Only and Condo Only.

Stay tuned.  Lots of data to follow.

Dec. 22, 2007 - Seattle Area Home Sales

For those of you trying to decide whether or not to sell your home in 2008, you need to ask yourself this question.  If you do not sell in 2008, when will you likely sell at a later time?

While it is true that selling in 2008 may be more difficult than in the hot market of 2005 or in the next hot market, you may be totally screwed if you are waiting a short time vs. selling now.

Let's assume for a moment that we are at a point near the peak or just past the peak of that bell curve.  If it takes three years to get to the bottom of the valley and eight years past that to get above the previous peak, you may be better off selling in 2008.  Maybe that will be a fraction less than you could have gotten had you sold 12 months ago.  But it very well could be 20% more than you will eventually sell for, if you can't wait until a very long time from now. 

The expectation of market changes is that since prices have doubled, they may drop back by 30% or even 50% before the rise up again to values higher than the current peak.  It's OK to wait...but ask yourself this.  What exactly are you waiting FOR and how long can you wait for THAT?

If your current sale price is double what you paid for it, and you want to move, then DO IT!  Don't worry so much about whether you could have sold it for more several months ago.  Worry more about whether or not you will be forced to sell it for even less if you wait.