Nov. 30, 2006 - When is a good time to sell your home?
Honestly, people really do overthink things sometimes. I certainly do.
Today there are 4,581 properties in escrow in King County. 4,015 of those are priced at $750,000 or less. There are 6,428 for sale at $750,000 or less. Looks like a 45 day supply to me. Looks like plenty of people are buying and not all that many are selling.
Makes you wonder why people want to wait until Spring.
I first saw this on Stephanie's Home Snoop Blog. When I went to the underlying article What will your House Be Worth in 2016, I had to say to myself, why would we be second guessing Forbes and Moody's? Surely they have the data to deliver the most reliable results.
Of course we still have to figure out whose house will fit the bill and whose will not. Which will go up higher and which lower, to create the average result shown. But generally speaking...I like the fact that we do seem to be the ONLY City with these types of numbers. The article gives you more cities, but I found these two an indication that Forbes and Moody's is not being all "Pie in the Sky" about it. Uniquely different results from one city to another. Helps put those "national" articles into perspective, for me anyway.
I'm not particularly fond of a metal exhaust pipe sticking up from the cabinet over the micro/range hood.
I prefer when they build it in, though this one is a little too large and doesn't quite match the cabinets.
This one with the smaller space above the cabinet and small, recessed pipe "enclosure" might look more like yours.
My range top vents out and the cabinets have crown molding at the top, rounded at the outside corner. Since I couldn't "stage" the top of the cabinets because of the limited space, I painted the wall a light color to differentiate it from the ceiling color to offset the cabinets. For the cabinets you talked about, a light sage green might be nice.
1 fresh turkey,18 peppercorns, 2 cups Kosher salt, 6 sprigs fresh thyme,1 1/2 cup brown sugar, 5 cloves garlic, crushed,1 large thumb ginger, sliced (optional), 8-10 juniper berries (optional)
The evening before cooking, bring 2 quarts of water to boil, add salt and sugar, and stir to dissolve. Add remaining spices and simmer for several minutes, then cool. Pour into a clean 5-gallon bucket and place in refrigerator, or in garage less than 40 degrees. Add about 2 gallons of ice water, turkey, and enough cold water to submerge bird. Cover and brine overnight. Remove, rinse, pat dry, season as you normally would and roast. Andi
Oops...re-reading this I see 1 1/2 cups of brown sugar, and I only used 1/2 cup. Oh well. Too late now! I added a little anise, tarragon, poultry seasoning, rosemary and pretty much a little of every spice I have in the cabinet :-)
I couldn't bear the thought of putting the turkey in a "bucket", so I first put it in a turkey oven bag.
But I still didn't want to put my "dinner" in a "bucket", whether the bucket was clean or not, even though it was in a bag. Luckily I have pots bigger than buckets :-)
The turkey was totally covered, only if we pulled the bag up, like it was hanging from a hook.
So we tied the top of the bag around the handle of the pot.
So the turkey is now out on the deck in a pot. If the animals out there don't get it...or the neighbors don't come over after reading this :-) and take it for their dinner, we'll have two turkeys tomorrow. One brined and one not brined.
Let's see if it's worth the extra effort to brine it. We'll take a poll of dinner guests who taste them both.
Thanks Andi, and other brine info contributors from Real Talk at Internet Crusade.
You look at a sale like this in Issaquah that sold for over a million dollars, and you might ask, "Hey, what would my house that I bought in 2005 for $555,000 sell for today?" The answer would be $715,285.64 :-) Then you go to Zillow and it says $655,713 with a range of $563,913 to $721,284 (helluva range there for a new house!) and you say, "Yeah, maybe my house IS worth $715,285.64! Whoohoo! a 29% increase!
But then you check it against the 2004 house that sold within 1/2 a mile for $749,900 and the comparison says yours would sell for $643,811, a 16% increase. Still good, and maybe more accurate.
The problem with running stats for Issaquah 98029 and Carnation 98014 (as the someone who this article if for asked me to do), is that it is very hard to calculate on an apples to apples basis. It is also very hard to factor in how new construction can throw all of your best guesses out the window. I'll hang my hat on list price of $650,000 for now. It could bid over, or it could be right on the money. A lot depends on whether or not it really does have three fireplaces, as the tax records shows. A lot hinges on the impact of only 3 bedrooms vs. 4 as well, as the tax record shows. So $650,000 looks right.
So I know I agreed to include 98029 and 98014 in my stats,but I'm kinda done with generic stats, and doing these two zip codes is really not worthwhile. I get a zkazillion double-wides in Carnation, and a total mixed bag in Issaquah. Reality is that new construction is at the mercy of new construction. While Seattle is touted as the one place in the Country that isn't reacting poorly, when you compete agains new construction...you become like the rest of the Country, and may in fact suffer the same fate.
If a the builders put out too many new homes like yours, and end up dropping the prices on the new construction, to sell them...you are just screwed. New trumps resale, even if your home is better. People like new. So best bet is to sell, when no builder has any ready to move into spec homes anywhere near you, in your price range.
In the meantime, let's call that house worth $650,000 today, a 16% increase, and enjoy it while you live there :-)
So far, I think he's getting whooped! We have Designated Agency here in Washington, so the Dual Agency argument they are having is a little irrelevant here...but it's fun to watch!
I love Russell Shaw's soon to be famous line: "Please. Recognize that everything that I say and write is true and don't argue with me. Thanks!" LOL, you can tell he's new to the Blogosphere. Maybe he just didn't understand the term "Smackdown".
Nov. 19, 2006 - Test your Zesitmate. Is your Zillow Value correct?
Hi Jillayne,
In answer to your question on this post, I had a lot of fun taking the publicly available site ride. Thanks!
Instead of looking up the stats for your neighborhood in Edmonds, I went straight to "How can you value your own home using publicly available sources?" That seemed more like a thing a homeowner might do for fun. Another way to phrase that question might be, "How do I test my Zestimate for accuracy?" or " Is my Zillow value correct?"
That seemed more like what a homeowner might do for fun, than running stats. Running stats is an "area" thing to do, not a "neighborhood" thing to do. When looking at neighborhood, you are more doing an "online CMA" than a stat scenario like the one I did for Bellevue, Redmond and Kirkland.
First I valued your house and came up with a list price of $399,999. Then I tried to do it with Zillow, and as you probably know, it says $341,004. Then I went to the John L. Scott site and couldn't find your "significant other" that sold in May/June. I say May/June because it was a May decision as to price and a June close. So "for fun" best answer is still to Zillow your neighborhood, but that could be $50,000 off, as it appears to be in your case.
Here's the deal. You've got that house up the street from you, before you get to 80th Ave, asking $459,900 on market for over 100 days. Then you've got that house in the next section off 80th Ave., on 187th place, that sold for $380,950 in May/June. Both of those were tri-levels, like yours. So these two are your "significant others". Now Zillow both of those and yours and click on "See Home Details". All three properties have a land assessed value of $137,000. You can make adjustments if you want for "better" location, but they appear to be fairly equal and I'd treat them that way. Now look at "assessed value of buildings". Yours is $106,000, the one that sold is $101,200 and the one for sale is $113,400. Now just do the math.
Sale price of $380,950 divided by $101,200 times $106,000 puts your home value at $399,018. Now go to the house for sale and take $380,950 divided by $101,200 times $113,400 and it should sell for $426,874.80 or thereabouts. Likely it should have been listed originally at no more than $449,950 and better yet at $439,950 or $429,950. Looks like they used a comp in Seaview with a much higer land assessment of $170,000 plus as the comp to set that price. Anyway, back to you. If that house sells for $420,000 to $430,000, that verifies your "asking price" of $399,950. It could bid up over $400,000 as the $380,950 bid up from $369,950, or it could sell at $390,000 or $395,000.
Of course I don't know you, and have only been to Edmond's once for a Christmas Party where I was pretty tipsy most of the night. I've never seen the inside OR outside of your house, given you bought it in 2001 and the archives didn't retain even the curb appeal photo. But I'd say Zillow is low by about $50,000 because they appear to be overweighting a sale near you from January of 2006. Zillow should probably tighten up those dates and weightings, and not overweight sales in 1/2006 that are really 2005 season holdovers, and more heavily weight the sales from the 2006 season, at this point. Maybe they can weight sales in the last 3 months at 50%, previous 3 months at 40% and the rest at 10%. That might work.
So Zillow is your best vehicle to use as a consumer to value your house, if you make the following modifications. Find the most recent sales and pick the 2-3 "Significant Others". These are not necessarily the ones closest to you, but the ones that have equal land values when you click on the "see home details" and the ones that have the same style as your house. Valuing a tri-level with a full two story, will not be as accurate as using other tri-levels as your comps. You can use total assessed value and just divide the house that sold times it's total assessed value and then multiply that answer by your assessed value. All of that is available on Zillow. For you, using properties with the same land assessment, and dividing only by building assessment works better, as you can tell from the house not sold up the street. It's as close as you can get and works really well.
What do you think? Given what I've said above, am I right at an asking price of $399,999 for your house? Or is Zillow right at their $341,004? Depends somewhat on your kitchen and baths, and whether or not and when they were updated since the home was built in 1958.
Why do we run stats? Because it is important to check "Perception vs. Reality" from time to time. Even people like me who work in the real estate industry day in and day out, can miss a market segment's performance level, unless we study the real facts from time to time.
What I have found so far, is that lumping any of the separate market segments together, even Bellevue, Redmond and Kirkland, cities you would expect to follow the same basic market trend, gives unclear results. You have to separate everything down to total relevancy levels. Before I switch to doing Online CMA's for each Zip Code and market segment of each Zip Code, here are some stats I felt were important to me. For what it's worth, I will post them here for others, but they are likely more important to a real estate professional than a consumer.
Two market segments stand out for all three cities. The condo market from $200,000 to $400,000 and the Single Family Home market from $400,000 to $600,000.
Using Closed sales YTD, the highest number of sales was in Bellevue, 491 single family residences priced between $400,000 and $600,000.
Second at 466 sales was Kirkland Condos priced between $200,000 and $400,000.
Right behind would be Bellevue Condos in the same price range at 448 sales.
Then back to the single family residences from $400,000 to $600,000 with Kirkland at 403 and Redmond at 409.
Last in the range would be Redmond condos between $200,000 and $400,000 at 389 sales.
ARDELL
DellaLoggia
On Seattle Real Estate including Kirkland, Bellevue, Redmond, Green Lake and most areas around Lake Washington North of Downtown Seattle.
Phone: 206-910-1000 - Mailto:Ardell@RainCityGuide.com
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