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November 2006

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Wednesday, November 29, 2006 - Greenspan: Worst Is Over for Housing

Yes...I mean Greenspan  


The Associated Press

Housing starts and other data indicated the dampening effect that a slow housing market had on gross domestic product was at its maximum in the third quarter, when growth slowed to a weaker-than-expected 1.6 percent annual rate, he said at an investor conference organized by investment bank Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group Inc.

Greenspan said he expected inventory levels to come down at a 'reasonably rapid pace' and that 'it looks as though sales figures have stabilized.' But he also said there would be actual price declines in housing. 'That will have some impact on consumer expenditures,' he said. 'We haven't seen it yet.'

Greenspan, who retired as Fed chairman in January, is writing a book and runs Greenspan Associates, a consulting firm in Washington, D.C.
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Wednesday, November 29, 2006 - Year's Lowest Long-Term Rates Mean Opportunity

Overall mortgage activity dipped nationally despite long-term interest rates falling back to their lowest point in 2006, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Market Composite Index.

The MBA conducts its weekly Index to gauge how many consumers have applied for a loan to purchase or refinance a home as compared to the previous week. For the week ending November 17, overall mortgage activity fell for the first time in three weeks, with mortgage applications down 3.7 percent from the week prior.

However, Bob Walters, Chief Economist of Quicken Loans, says with long-term interest rates reminiscent of historic lows, there is a "mini-finance boom" taking place.

"Last month long-term interest rates returned to their lowest point since January and they have stayed comfortably in that range. This continues to give prospective buyers an excellent opportunity to enter the housing market," says Walters. "Also, with an estimated $560 billion in ARMs set to adjust in the coming year, we're seeing a growing trend of people taking advantage of these still historically low rates by refinancing into a fixed-rate mortgage."

The MBA's Index shows that the number of people applying to purchase a home decreased 2.8 percent week over week and refinance activity dipped 4.3 percent.

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Wednesday, November 29, 2006 - 2007 Conforming Loan Limits Announced!

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac announced their conforming loan limits for loans purchased after January 1, 2007.   Loans above this amount will be moved into the non-conforming, jumbo pricing.

Unlike in years past, the loan limits will actually remain the same as 2006.

To see the recent history of changes to the conforming loan limit, please see this recent post.




Below are the current and future conforming loan limits. 



Number of Units

 
   Maximum Original
Principal Balance
 Alaska, Guam, Hawaii,
  and U.S. Virgin Islands Only
1
$417,000
$625,500
2
$533,850
$800,775
3
$645,300
$967,950
4
$801,950
$1,202,925
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Wednesday, November 8, 2006 - Conforming Loan Limit May DECREASE in 2007

From Reuters:   Limit on GSE-eligible mortgages may decline for '07
By Al Yoon

NEW YORK, Nov 1 (Reuters) - Declining home values in 2006 may reduce the size of loans eligible for purchase by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, raising consumer borrowing costs in some high-priced regions, analysts said.

The so-called "conforming" loan limit is based on home prices in the Federal Housing Finance Board's Monthly Interest Rate Survey, which have declined 3.1 percent in the 12 months through September. The limit for 2007 will be calculated upon release of October data on Nov. 28.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac , government-sponsored enterprises, or GSEs, that raise money for low- to moderate-income housing from investors, have depended on higher limits to reach borrowers as home prices rose. A smaller limit may match a broad decline in loan sizes, but disadvantage the companies in areas where prices remain above the 2006 limit of $417,000. 

Loans within the conforming limit cost borrowers up to 0.5 percentage point less than a "jumbo" loan.   A new $417,000 loan would therefore cost a homeowner more than $100 in additional payments each month if the limit is cut.

The loan limit has not declined since falling by $150 in 1990 to $187,450. Its 15.9 percent jump for 2006 more than doubled the average rise during the decade-long housing boom.

(end article exerpt)



The new loan limits will be announced in the upcoming weeks for implementation January 1, 2007.

Here is the historical data of the changes in conforming loan limits for the past decade in case you're curious! 


2006   $417,000
2005   $359,650
2004   $333,700
2003   $322,700
2002   $300,700
2001   $275,000
2000   $252,700
1999   $240,000
1998   $227,150
1997   $214,600
1996   $207,000

TAMU's economists say that the medain home price in Texas was $174,100 in 2005

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